Heaven, Hell, Reality: Three Looks at the Business of Animation Production: Part 2. Gundam 00 DVD Sales
(this is the second segment of a three-part article reposted from ADTRW for posterity)
Gundam 00 DVD sales are out; *22,847 of vol. 1 in week 1, at retail price of \3,990. This isn’t particularly good.
Mobile Suit Gundam 00(1) (Buy: 機動戦士ガンダム00 (1)
Mobile Suit Gundam 00(2) (Preorder: 機動戦士ガンダム00 2
Mobile Suit Gundam 00(3) (Preorder: 機動戦士ガンダム00 3
Mobile Suit Gundam 00(4) (Preorder: 機動戦士ガンダム00 4
Mobile Suit Gundam 00(5) (Preorder: 機動戦士ガンダム00 5
Mobile Suit Gundam 00(6) (Preorder: 機動戦士ガンダム00 6
Mobile Suit Gundam 00(7) 23,24,25 \6,300
Assuming each sells around *30,000:
(1) \3,990 x *30,000 = 11,970
(2~7) ( \6,300 x *30,000 ) x 6 = 113,400
So a total retail turnover of 125,370, of which the production companies probably saw about 62,685.
Episode 1 cost approximately 2,500 to produce. Even with the charitable assumption that footage reuse, less action, one-time design costs, recaps and the like will bring the average episode cost down, it’s profoundly unlikely for a high-visibility, HD production that it would ever dip below 2000 an episode—calling 2,250 an average after ep 1, we’re left with a final production cost of:
2500 + ( 2250 x 24 ) = 56,500.
In addition, in a prime-time TV slot, the cost to have something aired is about 2,125 an ep, so broadcast costs are approximately:
2125 x 25 = 53,125.
Taken together, and applied to the revenue, we’re left with:
56,500 + 53,125 = 109,625
62,685 - 109,625 = -46,940
So a loss of at least -46,940 to be made up in toys and merch for season one.
What can and will make this not as bad as it looks?
DVD sales having legs. Some titles that do this much first week go on to finish at low 30s, some titles keep selling and end up at twice that much.
Lots of toys and/or games selling.
High TV ratings—the TV network is also a sponsor for 00, and it rating well (recently it’s been middling at best) and selling a lot of ads, broadcast costs will come down vis-a-vis cash outflow.
Foreign rights deals.
Bluray release sales—00 is an early posterchild for HD TV animation, and it wouldn’t amaze me if a lot of the market is waiting for that.
What happens if it is as bad as it looks?
Best case: More MSVs and scale-ups/higher-grade kits. If lots of Tieren kits are what’s keeping the black ink flowing, we’ll get almost as many as we have Zaku variants.
From there it descends through figures and character goods, to lower budget for season 2, season 2 in a worse timeslot, and so on.
As a comparison, other major volume-1s had the following week-1 and lifetime sales:
*56,760 *80,635 Mobile Suit Gundam SEED DESTINY 1
*36,634 *62,527 Code Geass: Lelouche of the Rebellion vol. 1
*28,729 *35,176 Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya Adventure of Mikuru Asahina Episode00 LE
*25,917 *38,671 Lucky☆Star 1 First Press LE
*22,847 ***,*** Mobile Suit Gundam 00 1
*21,450 *64,992 Full Metal Alchemist Vol.1
(Figures prefaced with \ are yen, * are unit sales, and unmarked figures are in tens of thousands of yen.)